The Daily Whale

simplifying assumption

Sun, 05 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Cosmological Principle, Etc.

Any simplifying assumption that goes unchallenged for long enough becomes a dogma that can only be countered with overwhelming evidence.

CLUE
William of Ockham would be disgusted at the abuse of his razor.

Washington prophecy

Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

How often taken, thou city of the tub?
Decreeing vain and barbarous laws,
That evil set root and grow tall.
We shall become infamous to the whole world.
-- George Washington Nostradamus

CLUE
Partly modeled after Nostradamus's prophecy 8 (the first one).

"If we now shamefully fail, we shall become infamous to the whole world." -- George Washington

lunafying force

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Lunacy has always been big in Washington. But with this president as a lunafying force....

day's work

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Blow up a smuggler, start a shooting war, override a sports referee--all in a day's work for King Trump. Why would anyone else bother to make a decision?

AI slop

Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

AI is a tool that makes it easier to create stuff, whether beautiful stuff or crummy stuff. AI slop comes from people who think that crummy stuff has value, because in the past, human attention lent it some. AI makes the world better, people make the world worse. AI has to improve a lot before it can make the world worse on its own. But that's OK, people are working on it.

CLUE
Crime that exploits computer security weaknesses is similar. AI makes the crime easier. It equally makes defense against the crime easier. If anyone bothers.

I expect that AI slop will fall to a modest level after a while. It will lose what its creators perceive as its value.

MAGA magma

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Trump keeps erupting MAGA magma. Do we really want to live under an active volcano?

mirror imaging

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Two Peas in a Pod

A classic error in international relations is mirror imaging, the assumption that the other side thinks the same way you do, and has the same values. You'd think most people would learn better as toddlers, but no, professional diplomats make this error all the time. Iran describes itself perfectly: "America still hasn't learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free.... If you strike, you'll get hit." And Trump still says Iran wants to make a deal.

evidence 1

Sun, 12 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

In the Trump administration, presence of evidence is not evidence of presence.

evidence 2

Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

In ICE operations, absence of evidence is evidence of malfeasance.

conspiracy theories

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

A: Why are there so many conspiracy theories? Are aliens planting them?
B: Jeez, it's obviously the mind control satellites. Just look up, you can see them.
A: Maybe that's how the aliens are doing it.
C: There's no need for an extraterrestrial explanation. Air pollution, fungal toxins, genetic damage from retroviruses, dinosaur scientists at the center of the Earth....
A: The aliens planted all that nonsense? Uh oh.
B: How can I escape to NASA's secret base on Jupiter?

hypothecary

Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

hypothecary - A hypothetical homeopathic apothecary.

ICE defamation

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

So far, 100% of the times that ICE has shot somebody dead, they've told outrageous lies about it. And since it's a big event, their lies are caught 100% of the time. They feel truth impunity--taking a page from Trump himself, they can announce any lie, and they believe it won't hurt them. Clearly, the victims need legal protection. There is already a social norm against speaking ill of the dead. We need a formal defamation law.

honesty bonds

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

When two large companies want to merge, they always claim it will bring lower prices and more choice for customers. After the merger, of course, economics operates and produces the opposite. Antitrust decisions would be easier if we could ensure honest arguments. In fact, we can help the companies analyze accurately in the first place by requiring honesty bonds, where they make their promises concrete and pay out the difference with reality. If that turns out insufficient, we'll have to invent public good bonds.

CLUE
The prospective Paramount-Warner Brothers merger is my inspiration.

floating shoes

Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT

The world is a dangerous place. Everywhere there are invisible, floating shoes just waiting to drop.