2016 and 2017
Now that the new year—wait wait wait, how did it get to be February already? Well, I’ll go ahead and ignore the mistake in the calendar. No need to file a bug report, I’m sure they’re on it.
2016 brought big progress in BWAPI bots. Killerbot by Marian Devecka finished #1 in SSCAIT 2015 with a 96% win rate in the round robin, seeming nearly unbeatable. But even after late updates, it landed #6 in the SSCAIT 2016 round robin with 85% win rate. The 5 bots that finished above it had all seen updates repeatedly during the year.
Iron brought hyperaggression and amazing micro. Krasi0 fixed crashes and weaknesses and became more aggressive. Sudden sensation Bereaver put together a variety of skills in a balanced package to reach the top ranks. ZerGreenBot showed us the first skilled overlord hunting and the first skilled reaver drops, both of which were then picked up by Bereaver and Tscmoo protoss. Zia gave a taste of zerg variety with opening learning. Even ZZZKBot by Chris Coxe, less heavily updated than the others, proved that it is still possible to beat many opponents with prepared strategies. Overall, the meta shifted somewhat away from rush strategies toward macro play, though rush defenses need to be strengthened further before the shift will be complete.
In 2017 I see progress speeding up further. The community is larger and more active. I see people in the chat talking about their plans for new skills. Openbw is preparing new tools. Bots are playing an ever-wider range of strategies. The level of play is higher, and bot authors are adapting to it in a virtuous cycle of improvement. 2016’s top Krasi0 and Iron are updated, and so is Tyr by Simon Prins. Many of the fresh bots popping up during the post-SSCAIT surge are starting out stronger than new bots did last year (except for Bereaver, of course). I think both AILien and my own Steamhammer are at risk of becoming top bots and having to work to stay there, and the new from-scratch bots like McRave and ZurZurZur are improving rapidly and may catch up.
Even today’s entrant “Newbie Zergrush” is causing trouble for one opponent after another with its simple nonstandard opening of 8 hatch 7 pool (at least against protoss and terran; it played differently in its one game vs zerg so far). That rush gets zerglings over a minute later than 4 pool, but with 2 hatcheries the numbers grow fast and it seems that many bots were caught sleepy-eyed. XIMP did not add cannons or send defenders in time, and Krasi0 was surprised by the timing too. Steamhammer, by the way, knows a similar opening of 9 hatch 9 pool 9 gas, which gets the first lings 2 seconds later (seriously!) and also researches speed and boots up a stronger economy with greater chances to transition later. Steamhammer only plays it versus zerg, though. Now I’m thinking I should have enabled it versus protoss and terran too.
In 2017 I predict multiple bots with new skills of taking island expansions and carrying out doom drops. For Steamhammer I also plan deeper map analysis so it can do things like backdoor attacks when the map allows it. The tactics and strategy in bot play will grow more complex, and everybody will be scrambling to keep up.