small numbers speak small
Curious fact: Steamhammer versions 1.1 and 1.1.1 are currently 3-0 versus Bereaver and 0-3 versus Killerbot by Marian Devecka. I don’t think it deserves either of those numbers.
The wins over Bereaver are exploiting a weakness. Early in the game, Bereaver techs too hard and doesn’t defend itself adequately, and some of Steamhammer’s openings mass-produce zerglings at a timing that exploits the weakness. I don’t expect all the openings to win; Steamhammer got lucky so far.
The losses to Killerbot are due to scouting wrong (in the most recent game) or taking poor tactical engagements (in the other two). Against Killerbot, these Steamhammer versions play a more solid counter to Killerbot’s overpool +1 opening. Steamhammer now goes overpool with an early second hatchery to outproduce Killerbot in zerglings for a while, occasionally winning outright but usually buying time to transition into spire, which Killerbot can’t defend. I think Steamhammer’s strategy advantage at least equals Killerbot’s skill advantage in tactics and crisis management. Steamhammer’s long term score versus Killerbot should be 50% or more.
You can’t tell how two bots fare against each other from a few games. You especially can’t tell how Steamhammer fares, because the bot plays so many different openings. I propose new wording for the law of small numbers: Small numbers speak small.
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