Does Steamhammer’s updated gas steal skill help it win games? I ran an analysis on Starcraft AI Ladder games to find out. Each of these tables represents data from 100 games against that opponent.
“Gas steal decision” means Steamhammer decided to try to steal gas. It gives the number of games it made the decision and the time when it decided, along with the win rate and the enemy gas timing in games where it decided to steal gas. “Gas steal success” counts games where it succeeded in making the extractor on the enemy geyser. That’s more important than making the decision. “None or failed” means games other than successes, and “gas steal killed” is the time the extractor was destroyed, given that it was made in the first place. The “enemy gas” column is the median game time when the enemy was first observed to use gas (they made a building or unit which costs gas); the purpose of stealing gas is to delay this time. When it is “-”, that means the enemy was never observed to use gas before the game ended.
#1 bananabrain
| gas steal | # | median | early | late | wins | enemy gas |
|---|
| gas steal decision | 18 | 2:24 | 2:01 | 2:58 | 22% | 5:32 |
| gas steal success | 13 | 2:33 | 2:10 | 3:08 | 23% | 6:38 |
| none or failed | 87 | - | - | - | 21% | 4:49 |
| gas steal killed | 13 | 6:01 | 2:51 | 12:31 |
#2 halo
| gas steal | # | median | early | late | wins | enemy gas |
|---|
| gas steal decision | 15 | 2:35 | 1:47 | 3:40 | 33% | 4:06 |
| gas steal success | 6 | 2:43 | 2:13 | 3:09 | 0% | 5:59 |
| none or failed | 94 | - | - | - | 34% | 4:09 |
| gas steal killed | 6 | 3:12 | 2:46 | 3:38 |
#4 microwave
| gas steal | # | median | early | late | wins | enemy gas |
|---|
| gas steal decision | 6 | 2:32 | 2:01 | 3:25 | 50% | 3:37 |
| gas steal success | 1 | 2:04 | 2:04 | 2:04 | 100% | - |
| none or failed | 99 | - | - | - | 64% | 4:15 |
| gas steal killed | 1 | 2:26 | 2:26 | 2:26 |
#5 ecgberht
| gas steal | # | median | early | late | wins | enemy gas |
|---|
| gas steal decision | 15 | 2:13 | 1:53 | 5:06 | 73% | 5:58 |
| gas steal success | 12 | 2:25 | 2:01 | 5:08 | 67% | 6:06 |
| none or failed | 88 | - | - | - | 78% | 4:57 |
| gas steal killed | 12 | 3:53 | 2:35 | 6:04 |
#6 purplewave
| gas steal | # | median | early | late | wins | enemy gas |
|---|
| gas steal decision | 10 | 2:21 | 2:06 | 2:51 | 90% | 5:17 |
| gas steal success | 6 | 2:22 | 2:09 | 2:36 | 83% | 5:30 |
| none or failed | 94 | - | - | - | 90% | 4:55 |
| gas steal killed | 6 | 3:06 | 2:48 | 3:16 |
#7 zzzkbot
| gas steal | # | median | early | late | wins | enemy gas |
|---|
| gas steal decision | 11 | 2:11 | 2:00 | 2:51 | 73% | 2:48 |
| gas steal success | 1 | 2:16 | 2:16 | 2:16 | 0% | - |
| none or failed | 99 | - | - | - | 61% | 2:52 |
| gas steal killed | 1 | 7:25 | 7:25 | 7:25 |
Conclusion: The important rows to compare for each opponent are “gas steal success” versus “none or failed”. The numbers say that a successful gas steal does delay the enemy’s gas use. That is why Steamhammer tries it so often—it takes that as a sign that the trick is working. But by and large, stealing gas doesn’t lead to a higher win rate. These opponents can cope with having their gas stolen, at least as Steamhammer does it.
Maybe I should tone down the vespene theft. I have the impression that most opponents which are discombobulated by the gas steal are ones that Steamhammer will defeat anyway.
Comments