8 September 2014 - NATO-Russia wargame

< yesterday -- tomorrow >

wargame referee: Game on!
Russia: Time for a nuclear forces exercise. Let’s hold it in the west this time. By the way, we’ll protect all Russian speakers.
NATO: Happens all the time. Keep watching carefully.
Russia: Oops. My guys run across Latvia and make a line for the sea.
referee: That takes overnight. The Baltics are cut in half.
NATO: Ack! Article 5! Gather units in Poland!
referee: It will be weeks before you have enough to overmatch the Russian forces.
Russia: Hum-ty-dum, I’ll move a hundred thousand troops in, roll up the local armies, push into Lithuania, install new governments, plunder the defense industry, the usual. For humanitarian reasons.
referee: OK... that mostly works. Some logistical difficulties.
NATO: Alright, I’m ready for combat and I can win!
Russia: By the way, the nukes are still on alert.
referee: What do you do?
NATO: Um....

clue:

The times “overnight” and “weeks” are roughly right.

What do you think NATO would decide?

An alternate plan for Russia, more like what it has done in Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, would be to nibble off some ethnically Russian border villages. That would also invoke Article 5 and start a war. If Russia is to take a big risk, it might as well try for a big gain.

give me a clue so sweet and true

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