SSCAIT Steamhammer-PurpleWave games
Those who saw today’s stream of the second half of the SSCAIT round of 16 in the elimination bracket may be wondering why Steamhammer played the same losing opening three times in a row against PurpleWave. It’s easy to explain.
Before the tournament, PurpleWave was playing forge expand game after game against Steamhammer. Steamhammer experimented and found that it could win with 9 gas 9 pool, which is a strong ZvZ one-hatch mutalisk build. It is not a strong ZvP build, but before the tournament, the fast mutas scored 13-0 against the fast expands, not a single loss. PurpleWave was not ready to defend against air.
In the round robin phase, PurpleWave again opened the first game with forge expand, and lost to the one-hatch mutas. The score was 14-0. But PurpleWave had been updated for the tournament, and forgot whatever bug or other fixation had caused it to stick to the same strategy. In the second game, protoss varied, and the score went to 14-1. PurpleWave is ranked higher than Steamhammer and usually wins. 14-1 was statistically far and away the best available opening, so Steamhammer stuck with it. It saw during play that it had gotten into trouble and tried desperately to save itself, but the mischief came in the early opening and there was nothing for it; at best it could have lost more slowly.
An RPS analyzer that better predicts the enemy’s opening plan could have helped. Steamhammer would also have to pay more attention to the enemy’s predicted strategy; it deliberately ignores the prediction against long-familiar opponents. The only general way that I know for a bot to be sure that it’s time to switch plans is for it to model the game events and understand why it lost (“oh yeah, you can beat that every time”), which is much more powerful than comparing statistics. I hope to do that eventually, but it’s beyond the state of the art for now. Anyway, opening timing is first, and that feeds in too.
Comments
Dan on :
Good luck in the rest of the bracket!
Jay Scott on :
MicroDK on :
The reason was that Microwave had learned to play 9PoolSpeed vs Dragon because it was winning like 90%. Then Dragon was updated and the 9PoolSpeed began to loose 100%. So I wanted Microwave to switch strategy faster.
MicroDK on :
Jay Scott on :
Bruce on :
Dan on :
Some previous years: The learning files have a version number so the bot only uses games played on a specific version. For the tournament I upped the version number and treated the first two games as round robin.
Dan on :
Tully Elliston on :
MarcoDBAA on :
MicroDK on :
MarcoDBAA on :
But sure, what we consider "bad luck" might just be different.
You would want to have a random function there probably, whose output was unfortunately the same each time, even though that is improbable.
Jay Scott on :