SSCAIT halfway mark
The SSCAIT round robin phase is halfway over, a good time to take stock. Plenty of places will yet change hands, but the ranks are starting to firm up. #1 SAIDA is on top with less than half the loss rate of #2 Locutus. #3 Iron and #4 PurpleWave follow, close to each other. Then comes a gap, and the rest of the possible top 16 are more closely spaced.
#3 Iron, #7 KrasioP, and #8 Skynet by Andrew Smith are performing better than I expected. Iron is still reliable at rolling up the lower end. KrasioP’s game plan of cannon push into dark templar into carriers is more effective than I anticipated—each step sets the opponent a different problem. Overall, it’s striking how much stronger the field is this year than last. #13 Bereaver and #14 Tscmoo protoss have been pushed well down the rankings. When the round robin is over, I want to do an analysis to compare the win rates of unchanged bots; SSCAIT has many more unchanged entrants than other tournaments.
#9 Steamhammer looks likely to finish at 9 or 10 (the middle of my forecast range of 7 to 13 or one slot above). Most of Steamhammer’s losses are unexpected; it’s annoying, but the same happened last year so it’s not a surprise. In upsets, #2 Locutus lost a game to #36 Ecgberht, and #3 Iron lost a game to #49 AIUR by Florian Richoux—everybody has surprise results, except for SAIDA whose only 2 losses are to high-ranked opponents. Even tail-ender #72 FergalOGrady, which fails to start most games and plays awkwardly when it does start, has a win over #25 ICEbot (though it’s a win by crash as its last buildings were being destroyed).
Getting into the top 16 of 72 bots is not easy. Most of the finalists can be predicted now, though not with certainty. Place 16, just below #15 Microwave, has high odds of changing hands; those above range from likely to nearly sure to be in the finals. Pairings in the finals have historically pitted the top finisher against the last finalist and so on toward the middle. Even once you’ve made it into the top 16, you can benefit from climbing up a place (except that climbing from 9 to 8 makes no difference).
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MarcoDBAA on :
SAIDA will win the RR part of the tournament. Doing as well as expected. Bananabrains rush was defeated in the second game after the one before the tournament. Will have to turn it around vs Locutus and Purplewave too. krasi0P might not reach a stage where they meet each other in the KO phase. Anyway, SAIDA feels like a wall, that suddenly moves and crushes everyone.
Locutus: super safe, goon micro, SH derived learning and very nasty rushes. Only weaknesses I saw were vs invisible units (SAIDA also doesn´t like them too much) and not many higher level units to choose from in the later game.
Purplewave has good learning and the greatest arsenal to choose from. Proved that he can win vs SAIDA too. Sometimes the units bug around however, as seen in a game vs Locutus. If this happens too much...
I think, it should be decided between SAIDA, PW and Locutus.
And if I have to choose I would bet on PW.
Iron is still crushing most bots, but it cannot learn, and many top bots defeat it reliably. There was enough time to prepare vs him. No chance really.
For Killerbot I am waiting for the SAIDA games. But the weakness vs Zerg and still no learning (or am I wrong?) might be a problem. Still the zerg bot to win it, if a zerg wins.
Bananabrain... Yes, great macro, good rushing, good unit skills like zealot drops, but you shouldn´t win with that combat simulator. This would be really surprising.
Bots under 80%:
The joker McRave:
Well, the KO tournament rules might help. The bot doesn´t really look defeated (so that you know he cannot win it) vs anyone, except SAIDA maybe. Just won a game vs Iron with a very nice stasis field and using it to turn the battle completely. The reaver shuttle micro with goons can also kill all protoss bots in theory. Corsair vs zerg are also good. It is just very inconsistent. But it can learn too. Who knows...
Do not believe in everyone else. Ok, if Locutus and PW also have problems with krasi0s protoss cheese...
It is really surprising that Skynet is even doing better than last year, while Bereaver, who finished much higher is struggling that much now. tscmoop probably isn´t the best tscmoo protoss possible (as in tscmoo random).
Race for #16 is super difficult to predict. Arrakhammer maybe? 1-15 should be decided already, yes.
P.S: Steamhammer would win the zerg tournament at least. ;)
Bruce on :
It will come down to which side of the bracket everyone ends up in. krasi0p is the wild card as it can beat SAIDA, PW and Locutus, though perhaps not consistently enough for a bo5 match.
Locutus vs. SAIDA is completely map dependent so who knows. An unlucky couple of games would put Locutus on a learning exploration that would likely end badly.
Jay Scott on :
MarcoDBAA on :
Turret placement was wrong. Should be in the main mineral line, if they breaked through already, or else at the natural choke (or both). Sending only one SCV in each time to build it does not help (time is lost, and Locutus really could have killed the turret) either (cancel it and build at another place was the best option I think?).Did not evacuate the workers in the main, when the DTs started killing them. The army then just watched the DTs, even though the natural was under attack and there was nothing to defend in the main anymore.
Sure, other maps might be better for SAIDA, because there is more time to build turrets, but this does not look good for him.
He visibly doesn´t know what to do in that situation besides building a turret and hoping for the best.
Bruce also might be right, that the RR isn´t decided either, although I only believe that SAIDA probably loses 3 further games (Marian said a win of his bot is not likely), and 6 total losses might still be enough to win the RR at least.
Ok, Bereaver does well vs SAIDA sometimes. When he survived the initial push, Bereaver managed to defeat SAIDA soundly in some games (before the update, but SAIDAS newer play vs protoss might not be better vs Bereaver). But looks like the only possibility of another SAIDA loss for me.
Barcode on :
Top16 at the moment has 9 protoss, 4 zerg, 3 terran.
Where would such an "imbalance" come from? On sscait ladder, the TPZ spread seems to be pretty close in terms of absolute number of bots.
Dilyan on :
Marian on :
Also many zerg bots now have pretty good standard/counter build vs that +1 attack timing rush.
It is possible for my bot to win vs SAIDA but it's rather unlikely.
My bet is on Locutus / PurpleWave.
Iron though looks strong overall but has some really weak matches(even vs my bot).
SAIDA could win elim but all of the strong protoss bots would have to be eliminated somehow...
Tully Elliston on :
Jay Scott on :
MicroDK on :