Starcraft AI blog

As I write, the SSCAIT round robin phase is close to its end, and though the top 2 places are undecided, most of the top 16 ranks are either mathematically fixed or highly unlikely to change. I am able to forecast part of Steamhammer’s path through the final elimination phase with only moderate risk of error.

Steamhammer will finish #11, the same as last year. It’s the middle of the range #10-#12 that I predicted on 29 December.

BananaBrain and Iron are tied for #5-#6. I don’t know how the tie will be broken for pairing purposes, because they scored 1-1 against each other. Perhaps it will be broken randomly. It matters for Steamhammer, because if the pairings work the same as last year, #11 Steamhammer will be paired against #6.

suppose #6 Iron

A stroke of luck. #11 Steamhammer 3-0 #6 Iron in the first round, or at worst 3-1, the same round 1 result as last year. In the second round, Steamhammer should face #3 BetaStar, which will win crushingly, still the same result, pushing Steamhammer into loser’s bracket round 2. There, Steamhammer is likely to face #16 TyrProtoss, which will be a close match that I can’t call. In the last two weeks on BASIL, the score is Steamhammer 13-11 TyrProtoss. In the SSCAIT round robin, the score is Steamhammer 1-1 TyrProtoss. Last year, this is that match that eliminated Steamhammer. If Steamhammer does win, surviving longer than last year, its next opponent in the loser’s round 3 is harder to forecast, and the match could again go either way—though I think Steamhammer is more likely to drop out here than to go on. It’s funny that this path is so nearly the same as last year, and maybe longer even though Steamhammer is probably relatively weaker.

suppose #6 BananaBrain

Though Steamhammer 2-0 BananaBrain in the round robin thanks to my preparation and/or luck, BananaBrain is likely to win this match. BASIL shows Steamhammer 2-14 BananaBrain. In this case, Steamhammer is likely kicked out at once.

Yeah, elimination tournaments are very sensitive to pairings and lucky results. Which means that something entirely different could yet happen.