21 January 2020 - invading Taiwan

Invading Taiwan is bold. China is cautious. The plan will be, stand up a full invasion force before one of the biannual calm sea windows—and wait. If the international reaction is not too severe, suddenly take Kinmen, which is within sight of the Chinese mainland and far from Taiwan proper. Then stand down and wait to make sure everyone feels relieved. After a few times around of taking small islands or doing nothing, the real invasion will seem both surprising and inevitable, and nobody will want to intervene.