3 May 2006 - Bolivian nationalization

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Hard-Nosed Economic Calculations

visionary: The announcement by Evo Morales brings a delightful ray of joy to the hearts of demagogues in all petroleum-exporting nations.
investor: Well, I knew it was risky in the first place.
visionary: And that’s only the earliest return on this dramatic long-term investment.
investor: Long term? We don’t know what the guy will do next week!
visionary: For now, there will be pain as investment collapses and output falls. But in the end, Bolivia will soar when the efficiently-managed fields in the rest of the world run out first, and they are the only remaining seller.
investor: Hmm, interesting play, but it needs good timing....

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